Estimating the dynamics of fiscal financing in emerging economies

Authors

  • Krastina Dzhambova Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, University of Wisconsin- Whitewater, Whitewater, USA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58567/eal03010003

Keywords:

Government spending multipliers; Small open economy; DSGE models; Government financing; Impulse response matching estimation

Abstract

I present a theoretical model and an empirical approach for jointly estimating the effectiveness of fiscal policy and the stochastic process of sovereign interest rate shocks. The theoretical model has features relevant to small open and emerging economies. Interest rate shocks affect the ability of firms to finance payroll expenses. This theoretical feature creates a propagation mechanism for interest rate shocks and affects government spending multipliers. This paper proposes a strategy for jointly estimating government spending multipliers and the interest rate shock process parameters.

References

Abel, A. (1990). Asset Prices Under Habit Formation and Catching up with the Jones. American Economic Review 80, 38-42. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2006539

Akinci, O. (2013). Global Financial Conditions, Country Spreads and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Countries. Journal of International Economics 91, 358-371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.07.005

Arteta, C., and Hale, G. (2008). Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector. Journal of International Economics 74, 53-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.05.008

Barrail Halley, Z. (2017). Expansion of the Middle Class, Consumer Credit Markets and Volatility in Emerging Economies. PhD thesis, Boston College. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:107373

Bilbiie, F., Ghironi, F., and Melitz, M. (2012). Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles. Journal of Political Economy 120, 304-345. https://doi.org/10.1086/665825

Christoffel, K., Jaccard, I., and Kilponen, J. (2011). Government Bond Risk Premia and the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy. ECB Working Paper No. 1411. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1969854

Coleman, W. J. II. (2000). Welfare and Optimum Dynamic Taxation of Consumption and Income. Journal of Public Economics 76, 1-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00043-2

Dzhambova, K. (2021). When It Rains, It Pours: Fiscal Policy, Credit Constraints and Business Cycles in Emerging and Developed Economies. Journal of Macroeconomics 69, 103319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103319

Gali, J., Lopez-Salido, and Valles, J. (2007). Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption. Journal of European Economics 5, 227-270. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2007.5.1.227

Garcia, C., and Restrepo, J. (2007). How Effective Is Government Spending in a Small Open Economy with Distortionary Taxes. Central Bank of Chile. http://fen.uahurtado.cl/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/inv188.pdf

Garcia-Cicco, J., and Kawamura, E. (2015). Dealing with the Dutch Disease: Fiscal Rules and Macro-Prudential Policies. Journal of International Money and Finance 55, 205-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.02.009

Gertler, M., Gilchrist, S., and Natalucci, F. (2007). External Constraints on Monetary Policy and Financial Accelerator. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39, 295-330. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00027.x

Hall, R. (2009). By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output? Edited by Romer, D. and Wolfers, J. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. http://www.nber.org/papers/w15496Hevia, C. (2014). Emerging Market Fluctuations: What Makes the Difference? Journal of International Economics 94, 33-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.05.002

Lama, R., and Medina, J. P. (2012). Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease. The International Journal of Central Banking 8, 143-189. https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q1a1.htm

Leeper, E., Plante, M., and Traum, N. (2010). Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States. Journal of Econometrics 156, 304-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.11.001

Magud, N., and Sosa, S. (2010). When and Why about Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 4, 1350009. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993313500099

Mandelman, F. S. (2013). Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Under Remittance Fluctuations. Journal of Development Economics 102, 128-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.02.006

Neumeyer, P., and Perri, F. (2005). Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates. Journal of Monetary Economics 52, 345-380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.011

Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., and Savastano, M. (2003). Debt Intolerance. Brookings Papers on Economics Activity. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/debt-intolerance/

Schmitt-Grohe, S., and Uribe, M. (2003a). Anticipated Ramsey Reforms and the Uniform Taxation Principle: The Role of International Financial Markets. NBER. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9862

Schmitt-Grohé, S., and Uribe, M. (2003b). Closing small open economy models. Journal of International Economics 61, 163-185. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(02)00056-9

Uribe, M., and Yue, V. (2006). Country Spreads and Emerging Economies. Journal of International Economics 69, 6-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.04.003

Downloads

Published

2023-09-01

How to Cite

Dzhambova, K. (2023). Estimating the dynamics of fiscal financing in emerging economies. Economic Analysis Letters, 3(1), 16–29. https://doi.org/10.58567/eal03010003

Issue

Section

Article