Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach

Ick Jin

doi:10.58567/jea02040005

Authors

Ick Jin Director General, Economic Analysis Department of the National Assembly Budget Office, Seoul, Korea https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9671-1488

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58567/jea02040005

Keywords:

Climate policy; climate technology; climate finance; NDC; probability of achieving the NDC target; IPAT; ImPACT; STIRPAT; CO-STIRPAT; carbon emission; energy efficiency; carbon intensity; Kaya identity

Abstract

This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.

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Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach

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